Graduate School Highway Network Evolution Models a Thesis Submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School at the University of Minnesota by Wei Chen in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science

This is to certify that I have examined this copy of a master's thesis by WEI CHEN and have found that it is complete and satisfactory in all respects, and that any and all revisions required by the final examining committee have been made. Principal Investigator of this project, for his inspiration and direction on this research. Throughout my study in University of Minnesota, he provided patience, encouragement, sound teaching, many good ideas, and advice. He helps to make transportation research fun for me. I also want to express my deep appreciation to the Minnesota Department of Transportation for their generous financial support to our research project. ii ABSTRACT This study explores dynamic highway system evolution. First, the concept of highway system evolution dynamics is illustrated through Allen's paper folding story, and a conceptual framework of the dynamic highway evolution model is described. According to the implications of the model, choosing one development path means the abandonment of other paths, and each decision influences the emergence of the future decisions in the ensuing states; therefore, even if all the improvement strategies work well in relieving present issues, they do not work the same in influencing the future development of the highway system. The model allows us to test how a particular highway development plan could help or hinder the functional development of the system over the long run. The dynamic highway system evolution model replicates the highway growth process in a more realistic scenario, that is the urban spatial economic distribution (including population distribution and land-use) is not assumed to be stable and the interactions of highways and spatial economic elements are also modeled. Second, empirical data and statistical models are used to find the answer to the question of where the new highway routes are most likely to be located. The land-use, population distribution and highway network data from 1958 to 1990 are used, and the highway system is classified into three levels, Interstate highways, divided highways, and secondary highways. Binary logit models estimate the new route growth probability of divided highways and secondary highways. Interstates, however, are not modeled here and are used as a predictor in modeling the growth of divided highways and secondary highways. iii The results show that the area's land-use attributes and population density level do have significant relationship with the area's likelihood of adding new highway routes. The findings of the empirical study …